Francis Ford Coppola is undeniably one of the most influential directors of all time. His career, defined by masterpieces like The Godfather, Apocalypse Now, and The Conversation, has left an indelible mark on cinema. So when a filmmaker of his stature embarks on a project like Megalopolis, it’s hard not to pay attention. Yet, for all its ambition and years of development, the sci-fi epic is currently tracking for a disappointing $5–8 million opening weekend—an underwhelming number given its $120 million budget.
With Megalopolis, Coppola is trying to do what he’s always done: take creative risks. The film, set in an alternate New York City referred to as “New Rome,” follows architect Cesar Catilina (Adam Driver) as he attempts to rebuild the city into a utopian metropolis. Thematically, Megalopolis draws heavily on Coppola’s fascination with Ancient Rome, societal collapse, and urban renewal. It’s big, philosophical, and meant to be a grand statement about the future of humanity.
But for all of its lofty goals, the film’s reception has been less than stellar, even before its official release. No major Hollywood studio was interested in distributing it, and Lionsgate only agreed to handle distribution in exchange for a fee, essentially minimizing their risk. Coppola, driven by passion, has largely financed the film himself, even selling a portion of his winery to fund production. That’s how badly he wanted to see Megalopolis come to life.
So, why does it look like Megalopolis is headed toward failure?
Financially Doomed From the Start?
To understand the gravity of Megalopolis’ potential failure, it’s important to put the numbers into context. A $120 million budget is no small sum, especially for a film not backed by a major studio. In today’s market, successful blockbuster films routinely open in the $50–100 million range domestically during their first weekend. Take Oppenheimer, which had a similar budget of around $100 million but grossed over $82 million in its opening weekend. Megalopolis, by comparison, is tracking for an anemic $5–8 million, which is concerning even for a smaller indie project, let alone a film of this scale.
When films like Oppenheimer or Barbie open to huge numbers, it’s often thanks to a combination of factors: strong marketing campaigns, critical praise, and audience anticipation. Megalopolis, on the other hand, has faced marketing setbacks, including a trailer that was pulled due to incorrect critic quotes. Lionsgate’s minimal involvement means that marketing has largely been left to Coppola, and so far, it hasn’t gained the traction needed to build widespread hype.
A Philosophical Mess?
On the creative side, early impressions of the film haven’t been promising either. While Megalopolis had its world premiere at Cannes, the feedback has been divisive. Many have praised Coppola’s ambition, but critics have noted the film’s philosophical themes are overcooked and ultimately underwhelming. Some have called it a “hodgepodge” of ideas that never quite come together, with dialogue that feels Shakespearean in its heaviness, yet fails to connect on a meaningful level.
Coppola’s vision of a futuristic city inspired by Ancient Rome is grand, but early reviews have described the execution as clunky and uninspired. The use of CGI and set design, which should evoke the grandeur of a future metropolis, instead comes off as flat and artificial. In an age where visual effects have reached breathtaking levels of realism, Megalopolis seems stuck somewhere between overly theatrical and disappointingly artificial.
The plot itself, centered on the battle between Cesar’s utopian vision and Mayor Franklyn Cicero’s (Giancarlo Esposito) resistance, is ambitious but muddled. The film tries to tackle issues of class, societal collapse, and rebirth, but does so in a way that often feels inaccessible to general audiences. Some critics have described the film as self-indulgent, more concerned with Coppola’s artistic expression than with telling a coherent story.
Lionsgate’s Minimal Involvement: A Red Flag?
Lionsgate’s decision to distribute Megalopolis—but only for a distribution fee—speaks volumes about the film’s commercial prospects. While Lionsgate has handled distribution for Coppola’s other works like Apocalypse Now Final Cut, they’ve taken a notably hands-off approach here. By agreeing to distribute the film but not back its marketing budget, Lionsgate has essentially distanced itself from the risk, signaling a lack of confidence in the film’s box office potential.
This hands-off deal also means that Coppola himself is responsible for much of the film’s promotional campaign, and so far, the results haven’t been encouraging. The film’s marketing has been riddled with issues, including a hastily-pulled trailer after it was revealed that the critic quotes featured were inaccurate. While a new trailer has been released, it hasn’t generated the buzz necessary to drive massive audience interest.
Can Megalopolis Defy the Odds?
It’s not impossible for a film to overcome poor opening weekend projections, but the odds are stacked against Megalopolis. Given its lack of studio backing, minimal marketing, and divisive early reactions, the film will need a near-miracle to recover its budget. While it’s possible that Megalopolis could find a niche audience and eventually gain cult status, that won’t be enough to make up for its astronomical costs.
Coppola’s legacy ensures that Megalopolis will be talked about, and perhaps, in time, it will be reassessed by future generations of cinephiles. But right now, all signs point to this being one of the legendary director’s most significant financial misfires.
In a market dominated by franchise blockbusters and streaming platforms, Coppola’s passion project is admirable in its ambition but risky in its execution. Megalopolis may prove to be a reminder that even the greatest filmmakers can’t always beat the odds—especially when those odds include a $120 million price tag.
